OPEC - World Oil Demand To Grow by 900,000bpd

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has predicted that the world oil demand will grow by 900,000 barrels a day.

OPEC, which is responsible for a third of the world’s oil, also foresaw a flat market for oil due to weak pace of growth in developed nations.

The group said, in its just-released Monthly Oil Market Report, that "the weak pace of growth in the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) economies is negatively affecting demand for oil.”

OPEC left its world oil demand forecast at 0.9 mbpd in 2012, unchanged from the previous report, following marginally decreased growth of 0.8 mbpd in 2011.

“The weak pace of growth in the OECD economies is negatively affecting oil demand and imposing a high range of uncertainty on potential consumption growth. Although US economic data points toward a better performance, the situation in Europe along with higher oil prices has resulted in considerable uncertainties on the future oil demand for the remainder of the year,” OPEC said in the report.

It however noted that non-OPEC oil supply is expected to increase by 0.6 mbpd in 2012, following only minor growth of 30,000 bpd in the previous year.

The 2012 figure, it said, represented a downward adjustment of 0.1 mbpd from the previous month, mainly due to revisions in forecasts for Syria, the former Sudan, and Yemen, as well as changes in the supply profile of some countries, in addition to updates to historical data.

Similarly, OPEC said Non-Gas Liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional oils are expected to average 5.7 mbpd in 2012, an increase of 0.4 mbpd over the previous year and unchanged from the previous report. In February, total OPEC crude oil production, according to secondary sources, increased by 140,000 bpd to average 30.97 mbpd.

The organisation said demand for its oil in 2012 will average 30.0 mbpd, in line with the previous report and about 0.1 mbpd lower than last year.

It also left unchanged the forecast for world economic growth at 3.4 per cent for 2012 and 3.6percent for 2011. 

“The US continues recovering and is expected to grow by 2.2percent in 2012, unchanged from the previous month. Japan’s stimulus along with expected reconstruction efforts by the private sector are expected to drive 2012 growth to 1.8percent, unchanged from last month. The Eurozone’s deceleration has flattened out and growth expectations for 2012 remain at minus 0.2percent.

Emerging markets seem to continue expanding at high levels. China’s forecast has been kept at 8.2percent for 2012, while growth in India’s economy has slowed and the 2012 forecast has been revised down to 7.1percent from 7.2percent. While global output activity has recovered to some extent in the past weeks, downside risks prevail”, the report said.